Neither a bang nor a whimper

Donald Trump claims that, if we return him to the White House, he'll end Russia's war on Ukraine within 24 hours. Now it seems that we mightn't have to wait that long. The Kiev Independent today publishes an essay by Timothy Ash of Chatham House, a British think tank formally known as the Royal Institute of International Affairs, spelling out how and why the war might be moving toward an end. For fear of Mr Trump (and more recently, his vice-presidential pick), Ukraine has every reason to worry about US backing as the war grinds into a third year. And of course Joe Biden and Kamala Harris would love to take credit if the war begins to wind down this fall.

Mr Ash (not to be confused with the Oxford don Timothy Garton Ash) thinks that a settlement could look like this: Russia withdraws its troops to the February 2022 line of battle; Ukraine agrees that it won't join NATO; and the European Union agrees to admit Ukraine as a member. Except for that last bit, in other words, we're back at the status quo ante. It might actually work, if Putin would be gracious enough to die before he gets another itch to restore the empires of Catharine the Great and Joseph Stalin.