Another democracy in peril

Just as Vladimir Putin started a stupid and vicious war upon Ukraine, a western-leaning democracy of nearly 37 million, Xi Jinping threatens war upon Taiwan, whose 27 million people not only lean westward but have a per-capita income larger than some European states. Taiwan elects a new president tomorrow, January 13, and with any luck he'll be the current vice-president, Lai Ching-te, who favors independence from the People's Republic of China. Curiously, his main opponent is the heir to Chiang Kai-shek, whose Nationalist government fled to Taiwan after losing a civil war to Mao Zedong's communists in 1949. Despite that history, the Nationalist candidate favors closer ties to the PRC, and the Chinese dictator clearly wants him to win on Saturday.

So the question here is which outcome poses the most danger to Taiwan's democracy? Xi has pledged to absorb Taiwan, by force if necessary, which suggests an an invasion is possible if the pro-independence candidate wins. (Joe Biden has said that the US would defend Taiwan, but his record with respect to Afghanistan and even Ukraine isn't very reassuring.) The Nationalist candidate, on the other hand, is likely to slide into China's orbit without a struggle.

Update: With a commendable 70 percent turnout, the Taiwanese (who must vote in person) elected Mr Lai to a four-year term, the first time since 1996 that a political party has held the presidency for three consecutive terms.