Oops

Micah Zenko has a very discouraging piece in the online magazine Foreign Policy , in which he lays out all the reasons why we goofed in assuming that Britain, France, and the Arab League could topple Qadaffi in "days, not weeks" of U.S. assistance with the no-fly zone. Didn't work out that way, did it? Here's his final, downbeat paragraph:

Qaddafi is most assuredly a vicious tyrant, and his ouster is a worthy goal. But it will not be achieved through incremental aid to the rebels and intermittent decapitation attempts. Yet we are where we are. Given its current level of commitment, the United States should continue to use its military capabilities to support the no-fly zone, monitor and publicize killings of civilians by Qaddafi's forces or the rebels, and respond with direct force to prevent or mitigate any mass atrocities. More importantly, however, the administration should work toward a negotiated end to the civil war, while starting to plan for the U.S. military assets, humanitarian assistance, and financial aid required to keep any peace.

Sounds like the Yugoslavian intervention at best, Iraq at worst. Blue skies! -- Dan Ford

Here's an idea: a constitutional dictatorship!

Like a rotten log rolled over, the government of Libya keeps offering new surprises, as the insects scurry to find new and safer positions. Now that the wonderfully named Moussa Koussa has "defected" to England, Col Gadhafi is said to rely more and more upon his sons, much like the late Saddam Hussein in Iraq. And, like Saddam, Gadhafi has a whole bunch of sons. Now two of them have offered a suggestion that for chutzpah exceeds anything that Saddam ever proposed: they'll shove the old man aside and themselves preside over Libya as it transitions to democracy.

Right! Call it a constitutional dictatorship: members of the family will take turns at repressing Libya. No doubt some of Gadafi's seven sons themselves have sons, and so on. They can keep passing the dictatorship down from generation to generation, all the while abiding by the new constitution. Blue skies! -- Dan Ford

Reviews, options, consultations, discussions

The word from White House dot gov:

Readout of President Obama's meeting with his national security team on Libya

At today’s meeting, the President and his national security team reviewed the situation in Libya and options to increase pressure on Gaddafi. In particular, the conversation focused on efforts at the United Nations and potential UN Security Council actions, as well as ongoing consultations with Arab and European partners.

The President instructed his team to continue to fully engage in the discussions at the United Nations, NATO and with partners and organizations in the region.

Well, that's a huge relief. For a month now, I feared that the United States of America wasn't going to do anything to help the Libyan democracy movement. Not to worry! Our best minds are reviewing the situation. Blue skies! -- Dan Ford

Actions, options, costs, benefits ...

 
"When it comes to U.S. military actions, whether it's a no-fly zone or other options, you've got to balance costs versus benefits," Mr. Obama said. "And, you know, I don't take those decisions lightly."

It would be fairer to say that he doesn't take those decisions at all. Blue skies! -- Dan Ford

Viva Libya libre!

Enough already: it's time for the United States to extend recognition to the provisional government of Libya. It's just plain humiliating that we should stand by, thumbs in all the wrong places, waiting for the United Nations, when France and Britain are leading the way with actions that really bite the dictator in his softer extremities. There's a civil war in Libya! The good guys are winning! Please, Mr. Obama, don't just stand there gazing helplessly toward Turtle Bay: do something. Show the world that you deserve that Nobel Peace Prize you got so effortlessly. Blue skies! -- Dan Ford

Looking on the bright side

Whenever the cloud of revolution appears on the horizon, the New York Times famously sees only the silver lining. All those kindle "agrarian reformers" of the past, who turned into murderous thugs! The Gray Lady is at it again, as in this story by Scott Shane:

For nearly two decades, the leaders of Al Qaeda have denounced the Arab world’s dictators as heretics and puppets of the West and called for their downfall. Now, people in country after country have risen to topple their leaders — and Al Qaeda has played absolutely no role.

Of course that's true as far as it goes. But Mr. Shane goes on to a rather breathtaking either/or:

Will the terrorist network shrivel slowly to irrelevance? Or will it find a way to exploit the chaos produced by political upheaval and the disappointment that will inevitably follow hopes now raised so high?

Shrivel to irrelevance? Well, one can only hope. Blue skies! -- Dan Ford

Goodbye, Mr. Mubarak!

Isn't it a weird situation when we celebrate the fact that a dictator has been replaced by the army? "Mubarak is gone. Oh wonderful, the military is taking over!" Good luck with that, Egypt. I hope your generals treat you  better than Burma's have done over the past sixty years. Blue skies! -- Dan Ford

Good luck to Egypt!

At the gym this morning, I caught a rather sweet moment on CNN: Egyptian soldiers holding hands as they formed a cordon in Cairo. The great thing about having soldiers hold hands is that they can't simultaneously unsling rifles and club the citizens, or use the pointy end to stab or shoot.

Then I noticed something else: inside that cordon was another of civilians, likewise holding hands. These must have been self-appointed monitors, whose purpose was to keep soldiers and demonstrators apart. What's more, pedestrians were strolling between the military and civilian lines, as if the intervening space were a sidewalk.

I think there's real hope for a people who can behave so sanely in the middle of a revolution. Blue skies! -- Dan Ford